Berkshire Hathaway: The Case for Selling It Short

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Permalink Reply by Emre Ozmen on March 11, 2010 at 7:37am

He does make some pretty interesting points in his analysis, though a considerable chunk of those claims are how should i say it, indirectly related meaning not in company operations but more, about buffets thinking, and investor specualtion ( ie, traders,derivatives on Brk.B etc.) with the current BRK.B price around 82$ i find it hard to believe that within 6 months time BRK.B shares will fall down to the 55-60 range. I dont think 60 is actually too unreasonable considering most of the upward movement occured after the split. but anything lower than 55, dont think so. He seems to have made an analysis on something that could have a high chance of happening just from speculative trading (ie, people taking their profits and selling off, just like how the bought it like crazy after the split) I think the only way BRK.B would fall to the levels he is discussing is if 1- Something happens to buffets health and we say goodbye, or 2- economic news of a significant negative effect which would affect BRK's major investments.

Overall, good analysis, in depth on a few levels, but definitely an underestimation of Buffets knowledge and power.

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Permalink Reply by Chirag Trivedi on March 13, 2010 at 9:22pm

Very interesting. I have not read the entire article yet, but one of Mr. Buffet's famous quote is "be fearful when people are greedy, and be greedy when people are fearful."

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Permalink Reply by Tek ASfa on March 18, 2010 at 5:41pm

U seem u don't understand Buffet's investment philosophy. Your speculation could only be realized if Buffet is no more on the driver sit or unexpected crises.

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Permalink Reply by Emre Ozmen on March 19, 2010 at 2:07am

i agree, i think its a bold statement to assume the man doesnt know what hes doing just because hes old now

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Permalink Reply by Alok Baadkar on March 19, 2010 at 11:44pm

yes 'key man risk' is something i would be worried about if i were a berkshire investor.

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