Calculating Probabilities in Betting Companies

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Permalink Reply by Sachidanand (Sacha) Singh on August 24, 2009 at 2:07am

Could you upload an .xls file?

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Permalink Reply by Martin Skakala on August 24, 2009 at 9:59am

Hi I converted Christos's file. I have not change anything and it remains his work.

You can download free converter and then when you open Excel 2007 file in Excel 2003 you can save it as xls.

Enjoy the day,

Martin

Attachments:

• FootballBettingRisk.xls, 43 KB

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Permalink Reply by Sachidanand (Sacha) Singh on August 24, 2009 at 10:42am

Thanks, Martin

Sacha

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Permalink Reply by Charles on August 24, 2009 at 9:57am

plse convert to english

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Permalink Reply by Martin Skakala on August 24, 2009 at 9:59am

English is at the top of file,

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Permalink Reply by CHRISTOS BARDAS on August 24, 2009 at 4:15pm

Dear All

I'll try to fully translate in English and upload as an Excel file for OFFICE 1997-2003 if not tonight for sure in the next 12-14 hours!

Sorry for the trouble in Greek guys...I'm waiting for feedback.

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Permalink Reply by priyank on August 31, 2009 at 7:28am

can u please load it in english language

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Permalink Reply by CHRISTOS BARDAS on August 31, 2009 at 8:54am

I'd like to apologise for not having uploaded in English, but at the moment I'm working in a hotel for the summer season and I'm kind busy. I'll do my best to upload in English soon as possible!

There are parts which I'm trying to explain in brief comments on the cells. So have a closer look on the file!

Regards
Christos

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Permalink Reply by LES EWING on August 31, 2009 at 8:01pm

Hello Christos,
I worked for many years as a Horse Racing Analysist in an Australian Sports betting agency. I was not in the in the 'Other Sports Dept' e.g Soccer, Rugby League, Rugby Union, Basketball etc. I know they used to work on a 5% profit margin on a head to head basis and in those sports except Soccer (Football), a draw which only occurs maybe two or three times a season, adds another 3%.

There are many variables which have to be taken into account for each game e.g. available players, ladder position, for and against points, home game record (a big one) and away record to name a few. All of these statistics go into the pricing of each sides chances.
I guess each Betting Agency in each country has a different method or formula for doing that but will come up with similar rankings or prices. Others just follow the leading agencies prices. Competion is strong and margins are tight and costs are high and competion for clients is even stronger.

Margins say on the head to head are 5%-8%, so if they get it wrong and the public get it right they are on a hiding to nothing. There is not a lot of room to move the prices up or down if the public just essentially bet on one team which happens often. A Rugby League game was played here last night in Sydney - Australia, the Knights played the Raiders.
Knights were 8th on the ladder with 12 seaon wins (9 home-3 away), the Raiders 11th on the ladder with 8 season wins (6 home-2 away). Each side had their regular players and they were playing at the Raiders home stadium. Dilema - who deserves to be favourite ? and who will win ? and what price should each team head to head be ? Very difficult to access.

The prices were sent out by the Agencies were Raiders $1.87 and Knights $1.95 - 105.4%.
Just a 5.4% margin. It could have quite easily have been the other way around you could argue. The slight edge to sway the favouritism equasion in favour of the Raiders was most probably the fact that the Knights (the better team) have only beaten the Raiders (lost their last two games) at home twice in the last 15 attempts, a fact not commonly remembered by the public. The Result :- Raiders 30 - Knights 14. Needless to say the bookies won on a favoured team not favoured by the public.

All of this could be deemed as Risk Management.

Cheers

LesEwing.♪♫♪♫

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Permalink Reply by CHRISTOS BARDAS on September 2, 2009 at 3:16pm

Dear Les

your long comment gave me an insight to Bookmakers' Risk Management. I'll read it again and again to understand a bit more as I read it quite fast!

I don't know how helpful my excel file is but at least you answered a part in the excel I couldn't understand... (even though I calculated some probabilities and it seemed to be ok but obviously there are more to learn!)

Best wishes
Christos

P.S. I have added the excel file in English so everyone understands!

Attachments:

• Football Betting & Risk.xlsx, 18 KB

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Permalink Reply by LES EWING on September 2, 2009 at 8:56pm

Hello Christos,

I'll download your file and have a look at it. If you ever have any questions regarding gambling probability in the Sports and Horse Racing Industries don't hesitate to ask me a question as I have an enormous amount of experience in both, and will only be too pleased to pass on any knowledge that I have. As I said I was employed in the Industries and prior to that I made a living from betting on race horses at the track.

I used to drive to the race meetings around Victoria (state in Australia) most every day of the week in a different part of the State for quite a few years.

Good Luck and best wishes to you,

Les Ewing. ♪♫♪♫

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Permalink Reply by CHRISTOS BARDAS on September 3, 2009 at 2:45pm

Dear Les

I studied in UK for 7 years, I spent my placement year (1 year) in Australia (Sydney) I really love this country! I came to Melbourne in 2001 for the friendly match between Australia and France and for the F1 race (the first race of the season). That particular year I came close to my prediction the winner in Melbourne Cup (the Horse Race) but not that close to win even some dollars.

If I could I would ask the citizenship but it was quite complicated! I hope one day I could come back even for short holidays.

We'll keep in touch...we got the same passion! Taking Risks, Making Decisions!

No worries mate...Aussie Rules!

Christos

To be honest I have some questions but need some time so I can modify them so they become more specific rather than broad ones!

Thank you

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