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FIFA World Cup 2010 Economics
So what happens when you let a bunch of investment banking monkeys apply their expensive corporate finance, financial modeling and quantitative research training to the business of sport?
Answer: You get a series of well packaged research on the economics of the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2010 football (soccer) tournament, held in South Africa. Goldman Sachs, UBS and JPMorgan have each published World Cup reports this year, each with varying themes on the business of sport and football.
Goldman Sachs World Cup 2010 report includes extensive contributions from a variety of well respected commentators, analysts, politicians and businessmen. Adrian Lovett of 1GOAL writes about raising basic educational standards in the emerging world through the vehicle of the World Cup. Former South African Central Bank Governor Tito Mboweni discusses the host nation’s chances, aided by the football analytical skills of his nephew. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov expresses his hopes for a World Cup in Russia in 2018. Carlos Cordeiro, a former Goldman partner, describes why the 2022 competition should be held in the USA. To keep it fair and balanced, Andy Anson, CEO of England’s 2018 World Cup bid, states his case. Many of the Goldman World Cup report's country pages are written by distinguished guests such as Otmar Issing on Germany, Mayor of Rio Eduardo Paes on Brazil, Edwin van de Sar on the Netherlands, and a group of football-loving FX traders on Italy and Tudor’s Angel Ubide on Spain. In keeping with tradition, Goldman also assembles their Dream Team for the 2010 World Cup, based on the results of a 2,955 voting process by their clients.
JP Morgan's World Cup 2010 report has received good press coverage this year, for their unique approach of applying their Quantitative Models and methodologies, traditionally used to efficiently screen and identify stocks based on information and data (analyst upgrades, valuation metrics etc) that is proven to help predict stock returns, to model a statistical outcome for the winners of the World Cup. Read JP Morgan's World Cup report and benefit from a educational background on quantitative financial modeling techniques in a fun and fruitful way. Many, though, may find issue with JP Morgan's prediction that England will win the World Cup in 2010.
UBS Wealth Management Research's have applied what they call their "usually quite dull analytical toolbox" to deciphering the beautiful game's most coveted championship in their World Cup 2010 investor guide. As this is the first World Cup to be held in Africa, UBS thought it would be useful to take a closer look at a continent that is too often forgotten when it comes to searching for investment opportunities or, even more simply, when assessing the state of the world economy. UBS points out that Africa accounts for 15% of the global population and is likely to account for 20% in just a couple of years due to its strong demographic trends, and does a deep dive into trends, information and analysis on African economy.
Weigh in with your winner predictions and analysis for the World Cup. If you have developed spreadsheets, prediction models, scorecards, or come across anything interesting that helps add a quantitative element to the upcoming tournament, be sure to share.
Otherwise, enjoy all 3 reports - and enjoy the beautiful game - attached below for your reading pleasure.
Answer: You get a series of well packaged research on the economics of the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2010 football (soccer) tournament, held in South Africa. Goldman Sachs, UBS and JPMorgan have each published World Cup reports this year, each with varying themes on the business of sport and football.
Goldman Sachs World Cup 2010 report includes extensive contributions from a variety of well respected commentators, analysts, politicians and businessmen. Adrian Lovett of 1GOAL writes about raising basic educational standards in the emerging world through the vehicle of the World Cup. Former South African Central Bank Governor Tito Mboweni discusses the host nation’s chances, aided by the football analytical skills of his nephew. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov expresses his hopes for a World Cup in Russia in 2018. Carlos Cordeiro, a former Goldman partner, describes why the 2022 competition should be held in the USA. To keep it fair and balanced, Andy Anson, CEO of England’s 2018 World Cup bid, states his case. Many of the Goldman World Cup report's country pages are written by distinguished guests such as Otmar Issing on Germany, Mayor of Rio Eduardo Paes on Brazil, Edwin van de Sar on the Netherlands, and a group of football-loving FX traders on Italy and Tudor’s Angel Ubide on Spain. In keeping with tradition, Goldman also assembles their Dream Team for the 2010 World Cup, based on the results of a 2,955 voting process by their clients.
JP Morgan's World Cup 2010 report has received good press coverage this year, for their unique approach of applying their Quantitative Models and methodologies, traditionally used to efficiently screen and identify stocks based on information and data (analyst upgrades, valuation metrics etc) that is proven to help predict stock returns, to model a statistical outcome for the winners of the World Cup. Read JP Morgan's World Cup report and benefit from a educational background on quantitative financial modeling techniques in a fun and fruitful way. Many, though, may find issue with JP Morgan's prediction that England will win the World Cup in 2010.
UBS Wealth Management Research's have applied what they call their "usually quite dull analytical toolbox" to deciphering the beautiful game's most coveted championship in their World Cup 2010 investor guide. As this is the first World Cup to be held in Africa, UBS thought it would be useful to take a closer look at a continent that is too often forgotten when it comes to searching for investment opportunities or, even more simply, when assessing the state of the world economy. UBS points out that Africa accounts for 15% of the global population and is likely to account for 20% in just a couple of years due to its strong demographic trends, and does a deep dive into trends, information and analysis on African economy.
Weigh in with your winner predictions and analysis for the World Cup. If you have developed spreadsheets, prediction models, scorecards, or come across anything interesting that helps add a quantitative element to the upcoming tournament, be sure to share.
Otherwise, enjoy all 3 reports - and enjoy the beautiful game - attached below for your reading pleasure.
Tags: FIFA, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS, World Cup 2010
Views: 166
- Attachments:
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GS World Cup Report.pdf, 2.7 MB -
JPMorgan-Quantitative-Guide-to-World-Cup.pdf, 484 KB
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UBS_World Cup 2010.pdf, 2.2 MB
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Andrés Dobles on -
Really interesting Daniel! I am uploading a spreadsheet which allows users to keep track of the scores and dates of the matches. It is in Spanish but really easy to follow.
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Copia de Mundial 2010(1).xlsx, 869 KB
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Permalink Reply by Juan Carlos Russo on
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Excelente! Muy buena la plantilla.
Gracias
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Permalink Reply by Ahmad Alisa on
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If my memory helps me, I recall in 2006, prior to the World Cup, UBS predicted Italy to win the cup. Sport people, including me, were in doubt especially with Germany being the host and Brazil as the ever stong team.
Guess what? UBS wre right.
Interesting reports .... Thx Daniel.
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Permalink Reply by Miguel Enguidanos on -
Very interesting unless you don't think England has a chance to win. First of all because Rooney has been hurt and second because England plays an unimaginative style.
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Permalink Reply by Kofi Koduah-Sarpong on -
I think this is an excellent analysis. Only one thing has not been factored in properly - Surprises and shocks! The seeded teams might be in top form, however, there might be an element of surprise they might not have expected. Certain predictions are clean and flawless, others i take with a pinch of salt.
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Permalink Reply by Werner Reisacher on -
Players are complaining that the new “soccer ball” created by Adidas (one piece, no more grooves from stitching the patches) is difficult to control due to the changed aerodynamics. Hotels in South Africa are alarmed about the slow bookings. Otherwise, nothing new from this end about the forthcoming games. All of you who enjoy soccer – enjoy the games. .
I am happy to see that the banks have finally found a market niche for their scientific research departments in which they can publish their wisdom without damaging the perceived reputation of their employers. These researchers totally missed the boat, or rather, decided in their own interest not to warne the financial community about the existence of facts that will buildup up to situations that eventually had to result in the financial meltdowns. A few months ago, they cheered the crowd that declared the Euro the new global “reserve currency”. But they lucked out. Their financial models are all based on a “one fits all” concept and by changing their focus from the financial market to the entertainment sector; they will finally be in a situation to deal with issues that are fun and that are not encouraging their readers to make decisions that can have serious consequences on their personal lives.
Following are the some of the benefits:
• With their contribution to the World Soccer Championship event, they finally managed to put a smile on many people’s faces. Must be a long time ago when that happened lasts time.
• As Kofi refers to, anybody who has ever kicked a soccer ball knows that predicting the outcome of a soccer game with any degree of certainty is impossible. Nobody will blame these researchers for inaccurate predictions in the entertainment sector. After all, we know, it’s a game and we take their wisdom “with a pinch of salt”.
• And above all, by switching from the financial into the entertainment sector, the executives of their employers will no longer have to worry about their moral obligation to inform the public in a timely manner about major changes that will fundamentally change the results of their findings. – Finally, everybody is happy, who cares, it’s only a game.
Werner Reisacher
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Permalink Reply by Bill M Wright on -
"Players are complaining that the new “soccer ball” created by Adidas (one piece, no more grooves from stitching the patches)" very interesting. Change for the better is good but change for change sake usually leads to problems e.g. The 1985 New Coke business and PR failure.
I can't image a Baseball without stitching enabling the pitcher to throw different pitches. I can't image an American QB player throwing a football without stitching. Can't image playing Basketball with a super smooth no stitching ball. The texture, stitching and grooves are all part of the game for any sport and player. No-doubt Adidas is trying to find ways in the executives minds to stay ahead of Nike.
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Permalink Reply by Werner Reisacher on
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For those of you who are interested in the soccer world-cup, there are spreadsheets available under the following URL that might be usuful. Keep in mind, using formulas is never as accurate as looking into the "cristal ball".
http://exceltemplate.net/sports/world-cup-2010-schedule-and-scoresh...
Werner Reisacher
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Permalink Reply by Daniel Chow on -
Worthy to take stock of these reports now that we are into the final 16. JP Morgan's prediction that England will win the 2010 World Cup is now wrong, as Germany powers past them 4 to 1, relegating England out of the tournament.
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Permalink Reply by preetam chandra on -
wait for a few days to get the news that JPMC made USD 4.0 billions by betting against its own report.
Preetam
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