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Bill M Wright

How Do You Define A Recession From A Depression ?

We have a unofficial but time tested Economic Theory in my world that says, "It's a recession when YOUR friend is laid off ...and it's a depression when YOU'RE laid off." Well, Ok...maybe that is more related to an Old Chinese Proverb then Economic Theory. Image if Economist had to boil economic theory down to a simple proverb. In my world MBA's have a saying about Economist and Recessions. By the time YOUR Economist tells your BOARD you are IN or OUT of a recession -YOU'RE a year late.

But here is one respected straight talking (but boring) non-political Economist review of the USA Economy as of June 10th 2009. I'll add USA consumer confidence has been rising three straight months. And we all know Stock Markets have been soaring from last November 08 lows for CHINA, INDIA and the USA's march 09 lows.


We know employment is always a lagging indicator and most USA economist expect our unemployment to rise to 10% this summer and begin to go down in the 4th quarter. And if anyone thinks the job market is difficult. Here is the job interviewing process for the C-level employees in my area (I'm the guy who gets in the pick-up truck first).


How do you tell a recession from a depression? And how are things in your part of the world? Can anyone in Asia compare this to the 1997 financial crisis or 1998 Russian default ? Anyone in Latin America who can compare to 2002 Argintina default ? I'm very interested in hearing from Asia, Latin America and the Middle East alone with Euro-zone.

Tags: crisis, depression, economic, economics, financial, outlook, recession, world

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