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Stating the Obvious - OECD and ECRI
These four self explantatory charts from a recent Morgan Stanley European equity strategy report - Equity implications of rollover in growth leading indicators - could'nt provide a bigger sell signal.
Here's the OECD World leading indicator at a 34 year high...
...and here's what happens to equities six months after OCED indicators hit a peak...
Next up, the ECRI index starting to roll over from its recent record high....
...and finally how equities perform six months after ECRI peaks.
Tags: ecri, oecd, sell signal
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Comment by Daniel Chow on February 16, 2010 at 9:04pm -
If you believe in historical data holding any relevance in today's markets, then its not all doom and gloom. Another chart I came across today compared the current situation of the S&P 500 with how things were in the 1970s:
Believe what you may...
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Comment by Bill M Wright on February 23, 2010 at 12:04am - Very interesting. Thanks for the charts. Many of the Euro Financial stocks which began a recovery in March 09 peaked around Sept 09 and started rolling over already...lossing much of their gains. After a large gain USA stocks often sell off in Jan as people lock in gains from 2009 in 2010 begining with no tax bill due until 2011 April 15th. Bargin hunters often come in during those sell offs helping hold up the market through May when more sell offs often take place. Interesting to see how 75-76 looks like a mirror image....just 6 months ago everyone wanted to compare this market to 1929-36 market.
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